Freight’s still moving. But showing up at different times, in different modes, and from different origins. That’s what tariffs tend to do: they may not shut the door; they’ll push shippers to find another door. We looked at 2025 financial results of 20 significant players in the logistics industry from 3PLs to shippers to gauge the impact for the trade war we’re in the midst of.
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Small-parcel cross-border absorbed the biggest hit. FedEx put a number on it: roughly $150 million in revenue impact in its first fiscal quarter from the loss of China/Hong Kong de minimis, part of a ~$1 billion trade-policy headwind for FY26. UPS echoed the pressure in Q2 with lower revenue and profit, and it is tearing into network costs to reset margins. The lesson for e-commerce brands that leaned on cheap cross-border flows is simple: new rules are now part of your unit economics.
Forwarders leaned into the complexity. Expeditors’ Q2 2025 revenue ~ $2.7B came with air and ocean volumes up ~7% each, supported by compliance work and timing shifts as customers pulled freight ahead of policy changes. This isn’t a boom; it’s a reroute that rewards brokers and customs desks that can sort out paperwork, capacity, and timing.
LTL carriers guarded price even as freight got thinner. Old Dominion’s tons/day fell 9.3% in Q2, yet yield ex-fuel rose 5.3%. XPO improved operating ratio and kept a constructive tone. That tells us two things: 1) freight is soft, and 2) pricing discipline is intact. When volumes come back, margins can snap back fast because carriers didn’t discount their way into a hole.
Contract logistics and dedicated fleets are the shock absorbers. GXO posted $3.3B in Q2 revenue, +16% y/y, and raised its outlook. Ryder upped 2025 free cash flow by about $500M, leaning on multiyear contracts and lower capex. These models smooth out the turbulence and keep service levels steady even as lanes shift. If a recession shows up this year, this is the part of the sector that should hold its footing best.
Truckload and intermodal are finding a floor, but guidance is still restrained. J.B. Hunt’s intermodal loads rose ~6% in Q2, though profit was squeezed by cost inflation and network friction. Schneider trimmed full-year EPS to $0.75–$0.95 and tied outcomes to policy paths. No one is calling a clean upturn yet.
Ocean carriers with China exposure felt the rotation. Matson reported ~14.6% y/y China volume declines in Q2 and linked the volatility to tariff dynamics. It also noted some demand firming from mid-May, which fits what forwarders say: more sourcing and consolidation across South and Southeast Asia, not a collapse in Asia trade. TFI pointed to cross-border pressure in its results too.
What management teams are signaling
Executives are planning for choppiness, not a crisis. Look at the mix of moves:
- Raise where you can: GXO nudged guidance up after a strong bookings and start-up cadence.
- Trim where you must: Schneider’s tighter EPS range and guarded commentary. Hub Group set EPS $1.80–$2.05 with revenue $3.6–$3.8B and kept the tone muted.
- Reshape the footprint: UPS’ network simplification and cost actions to realign with new parcel flows.
- Keep investing for the next upcycle: LTLs still funding terminals and tractors; that is a tell.
No one’s laying out an “all clear.” They are however building flexibility into 2025–2026 plans and preserving price where the network moat is real.
Five trends that matter for operators and investors
1) De minimis is no longer a business model. If your growth depended on low-value China parcels, assume higher landed costs and stickier transit times. Carriers will re-price products and lanes to match. The faster you rebuild your cost stack with new origins and service levels, the less margin you bleed.
2) Compliance creates profit pools. Expeditors’ quarter is a live case study: more customs brokerage, more planning work, and better capture when shippers need to move early or change modes. Managed transport and high-caliber brokerage aren’t overhead right now; they’re the difference between meeting a launch date and eating penalties.
3) Price discipline survived the downturn. Old Dominion’s yield ex-fuel improved with less freight on the dock. That’s rare in a soft patch and it sets up 2026. When tonnage turns, carriers that refused to chase low-yield freight can expand margins quickly.
4) Contracts are the buffer. Warehousing, dedicated, and integrated 3PL programs gave GXO and Ryder a steadier glide path in 2025. If a recession lands, that durability should separate winners from names tied too tightly to spot cycles.
5) Asia is a portfolio, not a binary choice. Matson’s China lanes weakened, but freight didn’t vanish. It leaked into ASEAN, transshipment hubs, and alternative routings. Companies that treat origin mix like an investment portfolio will keep product in stock while competitors argue with their spreadsheets.
Quick company snapshots to ground the narrative
- FedEx (Q1 FY26, Sep 18, 2025): about $150M quarterly revenue hit tied to de minimis, ~$1B annual policy headwind. Guidance reinstated with tight cost control.
- UPS (Q2 2025, Jul 29): lower revenue and profit; de minimis and China tariff impacts noted; network simplification and cost take-outs in motion.
- Expeditors (Q2 2025, Aug 5): ~$2.7B revenue; air and ocean volumes +~7%; stronger customs/brokerage activity.
- Old Dominion (Q2 2025, Jul 30): −9.3% tons/day; +5.3% yield ex-fuel; capital still flowing to service and density.
- GXO (Q2 2025, Aug 5): $3.3B revenue, +16% y/y; raised full-year targets.
- Ryder (Q2 2025, Jul 24): boosted 2025 FCF by about $500M; multiyear contract base providing stability.
- J.B. Hunt (Q2 2025, Jul 15): revenue around $2.93B; +6% intermodal loads; profit pinch from cost.
- Schneider (Q2 2025, Jul 31): FY EPS $0.75–$0.95; cautious on rates and mix.
- Matson (Q2 2025, Jul 31): China volume −~14.6% y/y; tariff-driven volatility with some mid-May firming.
- TFI International (Q2 2025, Jul 28): double-digit revenue and profit declines; cross-border tariff pressure flagged.
Where this leaves the industry
This is a mid-cycle, policy-shocked market. Pricing power survived where networks have real moats (LTL, premium parcel tiers, high-skill contract logistics). Cross-border bargain parcels from China took a beating and will need a re-architecture of origin, value density, and service level. Forwarders and customs desks are turning policy friction into revenue because timing and compliance now decide who ships and who pays expedite fees.
If recession headlines turn into a real demand dip, the order of resilience looks like this: 1) contract logistics and dedicated fleets, 2) disciplined LTL, 3) forwarders that can actually plan and procure capacity, 4) truckload and spot-sensitive brokerage. Not glamorous, but it’s a roadmap for capital allocation and vendor selection.
For professionals who want help operationalizing this, a 3PL with multi-node fulfillment, managed-transport depth, and a serious customs bench can execute the playbook above without torching margin or service levels. Speed Commerce provides many of the critical functions along the logistics chain, contact us for more info.
References
FedEx Q1 FY26 commentary on de minimis and trade-policy headwind, Sep 18, 2025.
UPS Q2 2025 results and policy impact, Jul 29, 2025.
Expeditors Q2 2025 press release, Aug 5, 2025.
Old Dominion Q2 2025 press release, Jul 30, 2025.
GXO Q2 2025 results and guidance, Aug 5, 2025.
Ryder Q2 2025 outlook update, Jul 24, 2025.
J.B. Hunt Q2 2025 loads and revenue, Jul 15, 2025; profit pressure coverage.
Schneider FY2025 EPS guidance update, Jul 31, 2025.
Matson Q2 2025 China service commentary, Jul 31, 2025.
TFI International Q2 2025 results, Jul 28, 2025.
