When a shooting-war touches the Middle East’s chokepoints, shipping usually won’t break everywhere at once. It can however slow in specific corridors, and then the delays and costs spill into planning, inventory, and cash flow for US businesses. That’s the story so far. Major carriers paused or rerouted services around the Red Sea, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Strait of Hormuz.
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Are shipping times actually slower?
For some lanes, yes.
Not because ships suddenly move slower, but because carriers are taking longer routes and reshuffling networks.
Maersk has rerouted certain services around the Cape of Good Hope, and it has also suspended vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz. Both decisions create longer sailing distances and knock-on schedule changes.
Reuters also reported Maersk pausing sailings through the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb and rerouting around Africa due to the escalation.
Why transit times get worse in two ways
1) The route itself gets longer
When carriers avoid the Red Sea and skip Suez, a “normal” transit becomes a Cape routing.
Project44’s lane data, tracked through mid-2025, found diversions commonly add about 7 to 14 days on lanes that typically use the canal route. That’s a useful baseline to cite because the same rerouting logic is in play again in 2026.
2) Even “on-time” schedules become unreliable
Longer routings are only half the pain. The other half is missed connections, blank sailings, rolled bookings, and equipment ending up in the wrong places.
Sea-Intelligence reported global schedule reliability at 61.4% in October 2025, with late arrivals averaging roughly 5 days. That reliability problem tends to flare when carriers are forced into sudden network changes.
What we’re seeing right now (March 2026)
- Maersk: suspending vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz and rerouting specific services around the Cape.
- MSC: “end of voyage” measures for Gulf-bound cargo, offloading at the nearest safe port, plus a mandatory surcharge reported by Reuters.
- Hapag-Lloyd: War Risk Surcharge effective March 2, 2026: $1,500/TEU standard and $3,500 for reefer/special equipment.
- CMA CGM: Emergency Conflict Surcharge effective March 2, 2026: $2,000 (20’), $3,000 (40’), $4,000 (reefer/special) across a broad Middle East scope.
- COSCO: suspending bookings for Middle East routes, per Reuters, which is the kind of signal that usually precedes broader lane disruption.
Why Hormuz makes this a US-economy issue fast
Even if your particular goods don’t touch the Gulf, fuel and insurance costs do.
The US Energy Information Administration describes the Strait of Hormuz as one of the world’s largest oil chokepoints, with 20.9 million barrels per day in 2023, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, and about one-fifth of LNG trade transiting the strait.
When that corridor is threatened or constrained, you tend to see:
- higher bunker and diesel volatility
- more “risk” fees in ocean invoices
- inflation pressure that shows up in landed cost and margin math
War-risk insurance can spike quickly during Middle East escalations. CNBC reported a prior jump (2025) where insurers charged 0.2% of ship value for Gulf journeys, up from 0.125%, alongside shorter quote validity windows.
Air freight is disrupted too, not just ocean
Forwarder operational updates are flagging widespread airspace closures and carrier suspensions after the Feb 28, 2026 escalation, with reroutes and capacity uncertainty.
Reuters also described severe regional air travel disruption tied to the conflict and airspace closures, which matters because Gulf hubs are major transit points for international air cargo.
If you lean on air for replenishment, promos, or stockout prevention, that usually translates into longer routings, tighter capacity, and higher rates.
What US importers should expect
Most companies feel this in a few predictable places. Longer planning lead times. Some lanes will need a new “standard” lead time that bakes in reroutes and variability.
Higher landed cost, fast. Published surcharges alone can add thousands per container, before any rate move.
More exceptions work. Rolled cargo, split routings, alternate discharge ports, and surprise detention or dwell time are all more likely during network disruption.
References
Maersk advisories (Red Sea, Suez, Hormuz)
Reuters reporting on carrier reroutes and booking suspensions (March 2026)
Hapag-Lloyd War Risk Surcharge notice (March 2026)
CMA CGM Emergency Conflict Surcharge notice (March 2026)
Expeditors Operational Impact updates (March 2026)
Project44 transit-time analysis of Red Sea diversions
Sea-Intelligence Global Liner Performance schedule reliability updates
US Energy Information Administration (World Oil Transit Chokepoints, Strait of Hormuz)
