The answer is both. Retailers are hitting the brakes on investing in their own warehouse space. Third-party logistics providers are stepping on the gas. That’s the TLDR version of the U.S. warehouse story at mid-2025.
Vacancy up, Commitments Smaller, Outsourcing up
U.S. warehouse availability has loosened considerably, with the national vacancy rate reported at 7.1% in Q2 2025, the highest since 2014. Another widely used dataset pegs vacancy at 6.6% for the same quarter. Different methodologies, same takeaway: capacity is easier to find than it was a year ago (Cushman & Wakefield).
The demand mix is shifting. JLL’s latest U.S. Industrial Tenant Demand Study shows traditional retailers cut their industrial requirements 16.7% year over year in the first half, while 3PLs expanded need by 12.8%. Overall tenant demand tracked by JLL fell 10.9% year over year (JLL).
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Who is Taking the Big Boxes Now
Large deals are skewing toward logistics outsourcers. CBRE’s midyear analysis of the 100 largest U.S. industrial leases shows 3PLs signed 38 of those leases totaling 28.9 million square feet in H1 2025, up from 28 leases and 20.6 million square feet a year earlier. General retail and wholesale dropped to second place. E-commerce-only tenants pulled back sharply.
What the Vacancy Spike Actually Means for Shippers
More choice and leverage.
Even with leasing volumes healthy in select markets, net absorption is muted and completions are still hitting the market. CBRE reports H1 leasing rose 8.5% year over year to 424.2 million square feet, yet net absorption for Q2 fell to the lowest level since 2010 and vacancy ticked up. Translation: plenty of first-generation space, and older product losing tenants.
Rents are cooling at the margin.
JLL clocks average asking rates around $10.06 per square foot and notes a plateau. Cushman & Wakefield also flags slower rent growth as vacancy climbs.
Tariff and trade noise is freezing decisions.
Multiple sources point to tariff uncertainty as a key reason for shorter renewals, smaller footprints, and delayed commitments.
Build-to-Suit is Where the Action Is
Developers and big occupiers are channeling capital into buildings designed for known users instead of speculative shells. Cushman & Wakefield’s Q2 write-up notes build-to-suit deliveries rising to about 30% of completions in the first half, nearly double last year’s share, while the pipeline of new starts continues to shrink.
Leading landlords echo this tilt. Prologis disclosed $846 million of Q2 development starts, with about 63% of those starts build-to-suit, and raised its full-year development-start outlook to a range of $2.25–$2.75 billion. Management also described a historically strong leasing pipeline driven largely by larger customers.
Why 3PLs are taking share right now
Retailers want flexibility while tariffs, freight repricing, and inventory policy are in flux. Outsourcing to 3PLs reduces capex risk and keeps footprint optionality high. CBRE’s 2025 outlook called for 3PLs to hold roughly a third of all industrial leasing this year. That is now playing out in the league-table data on the largest deals.
Scale also matters. Armstrong & Associates ranks Amazon as the world’s largest 3PL by gross logistics revenue at roughly $156 billion, with DHL Supply Chain & Global Forwarding and Kuehne + Nagel next in line. Big networks can absorb swing volumes, stand up pop-up nodes, and negotiate labor and transportation at scale, which makes them natural takers of space while retailers hesitate.
Macro Caution is Part of the Pullback
Growth signals are mixed and goods activity is soft, so retailers are trimming risk. Manufacturing readings have slipped back into contraction, freight indices point to lighter volumes, and import forecasts aren’t exactly roaring. That combo pushes inventory teams to keep a tighter leash and avoid long commitments. The safer play is to renew for shorter periods, defer expansions, and let procurement plans for 2026 drive footprint decisions later.
3PLs benefit in this kind of cycle. Brands hand off variable demand so they don’t get stuck with idle square footage, while larger logistics networks absorb the swings and spin up overflow nodes when needed. Deal sizes skew smaller, renewals rise, and the best buildings still lease because they improve throughput. Until demand for goods turns a clear corner, expect a bias toward outsourced capacity, shorter terms, and build-to-suit only when operations are dialed in.
Are Retailers Really Cutting back, or Just Changing How They Hold Space?
The data points to a reset vs a collapse.
- Shorter terms and more renewals. JLL highlights more short-term renewals as occupiers reassess supply paths and tariff exposure. CBRE’s large-lease list shows renewals accounting for a significant slice of H1’s biggest deals.
- Smaller average deals. The top-100 average lease size fell from 814,000 to 718,000 square feet year over year. Companies are trimming the per-site commitment even when they still need coverage. CBRE
- Flight to quality and consolidation. Modern buildings capture the bulk of new leasing while older facilities lose tenants. That mix shift raises headline vacancy even when operational capacity stays intact through consolidations and 3PL conversions.
What It Means for Shippers Planning 2026 Capacity
Speed is a moat, and speed lives inside flexible networks. For a retailer or brand mapping 2026:
- Trade up to first-generation or automation-ready buildings while concessions and free-rent periods are available. Put clear expansion-contraction language into the lease.
- Blend 3PL space with a smaller owned or master-leased core – push peak volumes, launch windows, and regional tests through a 3PL spine. Keep a tight core for stable base demand or specialized handling. The current leasing tables show where outsourcers can scale fastest.
- BTS is getting funded, but it is less forgiving if your SKU mix or channel split changes. Developers are listening, yet you will still carry commitment risk (Cushman & WakefieldPrologis, Inc.).
References
Cushman & Wakefield, U.S. Industrial MarketBeat, Q2 2025
CBRE, U.S. Industrial & Logistics Figures, Q2 2025
CBRE, “3PLs Dominate Top 100 Industrial Leases in H1 2025”
CBRE, U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2025 – Industrial & Logistics
JLL, U.S. Industrial Tenant Demand Study, 2025
JLL, U.S. Industrial Market Dynamics, Q2 2025
Prologis, Q2 2025 Results Press Release and Guidance
Armstrong & Associates, Top 50 Global 3PLs, updated August 6, 2025
